IS THE WORLD CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
BECOMING EXCESSIVELY DEPENDENT ON CHINA?
The large multi national companies have been pouring millions of dollars of investment in China during the last few years. While they also invest in other Asian countries like India, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia, such investment in these countries are only a fraction of the investments being made in China.
Obviously, the compulsions for the multi national companies is to find investment and market outlet for their products and they seem to believe that China can absorb very large quantity of products in its domestic market in the coming years due to its size and population. Further, with the lack of space for investment in Europe and North America and high level of public sensitivity and perception about the environmental issues due to the investments in chemical projects in the Western countries, they seem to think that investment in China would be a better option.
The multi national companies are placing enormous confidence and faith in the capability and commitment of the Government of China about ensuring peace on the labour front, control any social upheaval on environmental issues and protect the interest of the multinational companies. They seem to think that China is an ideal investment target since .the government can effectively control the people and the country if necessary. which may not be the case in country like India. Time alone will tell as to what extent the expectations of the multi national companies would be justified.
Perhaps, the multi national companies and the Governments in Europe and North America also think that by encouraging huge overseas investment in China and by the China based industries buying technology from Western countries, China would be as much dependent on the multi national companies, as the dependence of the multi national companies on China.
Most of the huge chemical projects by multi national companies in China are still under construction and one would not know at this stage as to what extent the market in China can absorb the products produced.
While, no doubt, the population in China is very huge, it need not mean that the purchasing capacity in China would be proportionately huge in the immediate future.
This would depend on the growth of the overall Chinese economy and the extent to which the distribution of national income can be made amongst the different segment of population in the country, so that the overall purchasing capacity in the country would go up.
There are several problems in China which are similar to that of India.
In spite of huge population in India, it is seen that the country cannot absorb even the rice that it produces fully, as persons with hungry stomach do not have the resources to buy. Those in the affluent category cannot afford to buy beyond a level since they cannot also consume. China may well find a situation in the near future when the large number of chemical products coming out of China due to huge investments by multi national companies could remain without buyers in China, forcing the projects in China to look for overseas market. This could affect the multi national companies themselves and their market in other parts of the world.
The fact that all is not well with the indigenous chemical industries in China is well revealed by the number of serious accidents taking place in chemical industries in China in recent times including the coal mines, which point to the fact that expansion of chemical industries in China are taking place without adequately preparing the country and the industries for the same. The Chinese Government has now taken note of the situation and is trying to enforce environmental auditing and regulations in a big way. However, it may find that several of the existing industries in China may not be able to implement such environmental regulations due to uneconomic size and investment constraints and may face closure. Further, many of them may find it extremely difficult to compete with the huge multi national companies present in China who could target to sell their products in China market.
Ultimately, the multi national companies may realize that their dependence on China has become so high that they cannot withdraw and may expect the governments in Europe and North America to protect their interests in China in whatever way appropriate
and possible.
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