INDIA’S ENERGY INSECURITY ISSUES
With the heavy dependence on crude oil imports and increasing price trend of crude oil in the global market, India is facing conditions of energy and power insecurity.
The Government of India is considering and initiating number of steps .to
overcome the problem such as setting up of massive nuclear power projects, setting up gas based power plant in Iran etc. However, such steps are being questioned by knowledgeable sources on several count.
There are obvious choice for India such as massive exploitation of solar energy resource, wind power etc. Much remain to be done on such fronts.
Crude oil price trend
Crude oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $70 to 80 per barrel in 2009 and 2010.
Platts, a leading global energy and metals information provider said: "The global demand of crude oil has declined by 2.3 million barrels per day at 83.9
million barrels per day during January to July 2009. Still the crude oil prices rose from $33.78 per barrel in February 2009 to $74 per barrel and more .
Though the fundamentals of demand and supply have not improved and the demand from the OECD countries is still contracting, the crude oil prices are at the higher levels.
The OPEC is trying to hold the crude oil prices in the range of $70 to $80 per barrel by cutting down production. It has cut the crude oil production by 4.2 million barrels per day at 24.8 million barrels. The crude oil production declined steadily from August 2008. The hopes of revival fuelled market sentiments that routed the fund flows to crude oil futures that also helped the prices to move up.
India’s nuclear power strategy – Doubts persist
The projection that an additional 20,000 MW of nuclear capacity in India may require Rs 800,000 million appear to be an under estimation.
Only the other day, the Secretary, Department of Atomic Energy, was reported to have stated that the cost of nuclear power today is about Rs 60 million per MW. This seems to be more accurate as the cost of coal power itself is about the first mentioned level and it is well known that the cost of coal power is less than that of nuclear power.
Additionally, the indirect costs, such as costs of mining for nuclear fuel, fuel processing and the cost of long term storage of spent fuel, etc., have not been included. Some other costs, that are externalised for the sake of convenience, such as health costs, the cost associated with the dependence on import, national security issues and so on, have not even been considered.
Hence, the real cost to society of such additional nuclear power is much higher than the projected Rs 800,000 million. It may be in the range of about Rs 1,200,000 to Rs.1,500,000 million.
Now, it is also well known that about a quarter of this colossal amount, if invested properly in measures such as efficiency improvement, energy conservation and demand side management, can help release more than the equivalent of 20,000 MW of power from the existing power infrastructure.
Proposal for gas based power project abroad – Ill conceived plan
The Government of India is said to be working on a project to set up a gas based power plant in Iran and wheel the power to India through an overland or sub sea transmission line. The plan is to use the abundant gas available in Iran and set up a 4,000 megawatt power plant at a cost of Rs 200,000 million.
The idea of wheeling power from Iran, howsoever cheap the fuel (gas), appears ill conceived for several reasons. First is the experience of dealing with Iran for the gas pipeline project through Pakistan. Despite protracted negotiations over the last five years, India and Iran have been unable to finalise the terms of the project, not the least because of security considerations as the pipeline will pass through Pakistan.
The proposed power transmission line will also have to traverse the same territory if it is overland and it is impossible to see how it can succeed where the gas pipeline scheme failed.
There are also prickly geopolitical issues to be considered. Assuming that the transmission line will take a sub sea route, it is doubtful whether the project will pass the commercial and technical tests.
Transmission via a sub sea network will cost several times more than through an overhead line. It is also not known if the technology to wheel power through sub sea cables over such a long distance has been applied elsewhere
India far behind in Solar power utilisation
According to the World Watch Institute, solar thermal heating world wide has expanded by 19 gigawatts of thermal equivalent (GWth), with the highest annual growth rate since 1995 to reach 147 GWth (210 million square meter) of capacity in 2007.
In India, the estimated potential is 140 million square metre collector area. However, only 2.15 million sq metre collector area has been achieved, with only 6.17 lakh solar cookers in use.
China, by far the largest market, has two thirds (79.9 GWth, 114.1 million sq.metre ) of global capacity and, despite a one third decrease in new installations to 16 GWth (22.9 million sq. metre) in 2007 compared with 2006, accounted for 80% of newly installed systems in 2007.
The market in Turkey, second only to China, peaked in 2004 and reached an annually installation plateau of 490 mwth (700,000 sq.metre) in 2006 and 2007. The slowdown can be traced to increased access to new gas pipelines (which has affected cost competitiveness in some regions), a high value added tax and little government support.
Germany remains the market leader in Europe, with 0.66 GWth (9,40,000 sq.metre) of new installations, despite a substantial 37% decrease between 2006 and 2007. This decline has been attributed to reductions in subsidies, a maturing heating market, the economic slowdown and an increase in the value added tax.
In Israel, the fifth largest market, new installations (49.7 mwth, 71,000 sq.metre ) plummeted by two thirds in 2007 compared to 2006. Despite this, Israel has a long history of promoting solar thermal heating, dating back to 1980 when it became the first country to implement a solar thermal heating law. Solar thermal heating is now a mainstream technology and meets 4% of the country’s total energy demand.
Similar initiatives have since been made in Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain.
In the US, new installations increased by 28% to reach a cumulative total of 1.7 GWth. Solar water heating received a supporting hand in late 2008 with the extension of the federal investment tax credit to 2016 and with the removal of tax credit cap in early 2009.
The International Energy Agency estimates that residential solar water heating could displace 60 to 70% of the natural gas and electricity that would otherwise be used in these buildings.
Integration of solar thermal heating systems into architectural designs is becoming prevalent and provides additional benefits, including shading and thermal insulation. The best commercially available solar thermal heating systems demonstrate efficiencies of nearly 70%.
Need to exploit solar energy
Renewable heating resources such as solar thermal energy can displace conventional heating fuels, primarily natural gas and electricity.
The thermal route uses the solar energy for water heating, cooking, drying, water purification, power generation and other applications, while the photovoltaic route converts the light in solar energy into electricity which can then be used for a number of purposes such as lighting, pumping, communications and power supply in unelectrified areas.
For India which is seen gradually slipping into energy insecurity, there is much to learn and emulate from other countries. There are not many countries in the world that enjoy 270 days of sunshine a year; India does.
The huge potential provided by solar energy – clean and renewable – needs to be tapped to meet the growing energy needs, especially in rural areas.
One of the critical applications could be the setting up of solar driers for rapid drying of freshly harvested agricultural produce.
Waste energy utilisation
Another area of interest to developing countries such as India that burn large quantities of fossil fuel is waste energy recycling, which captures smokestack waste and other waste energy and puts it to work. |
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