THIS NUCLEAR DEAL WILL DRIVE INDIA BACKWARD
The nuclear deal of Manmohan Singh government is being discussed as if it is only about Indo American relationship or dependability of USA as a long term partner. The more important issue is as to whether it is necessary to bind India to international controls, in spite of India’s resources and technological strength. If India can do without such long term nuclear deal, then India should opt out of it. What we need to examine is as to whether India can do without this nuclear deal, without suffering loss of growth opportunities.
We also need to keep in mind at this stage as to what would be the level of investment required for buying several fuel re processing reactors and other equipment from abroad, the cost of acquiring technology, the recurring cost of inputs and the cost of spare parts. Having signed a binding agreement, India may not have much room for negotiating the price.
The cost of nuclear power may ultimately become unacceptably high creating serious problems for the overall national economy.
A careful examination of various aspects would clearly indicate that India can do without this nuclear deal and would not suffer in its absence.
Indian nuclear power scenario
The power generating capacity in India as on January 2007 was 1,28,435 MW comprising hydrothermal (coal, gas and oil based), nuclear and renewable sources.
Generating capacity:
Sector |
Unit (MW) |
Percent |
Hydro |
34,110 |
26.56 |
Thermal |
84,234 |
65.58 |
Nuclear |
3,900 |
3.04 |
Renewable |
6,191 |
4.82 |
Total |
1,28,435 |
100 |
It can be seen from the above data that Indian nuclear power capacity represents only 3 percent of the total power capacity in India.
Even globally, nuclear power contributes only about 17 percent to the electricity demand of the world.
If the target of the proposed nuclear deal were to step up the share of nuclear power in India to as high as 17% in the next decade as per the prevailing global trend, it should be noted that equivalent quantity of power can be generated even without resorting to the nuclear deal , by exploiting the alternate sources of power that are potentially available to India.
Enough fuel for Nuclear Power
For the production of nuclear power, the fuel (fissile material)required can be uranium-233 or uranium -235 or Plutonium-239.
Besides, there are other fissionable material which can be converted to a fissile material, such as uranium-238 (which generates Plutonium-239) .The above fuel are produced from natural uranium and at the present use rate, there are 50 years worth of low cost known uranium reserves remaining in India
In advanced countries, the fuel used in nuclear power plants is reprocessed, so that it can be reused that would provide inexhaustible source of fuel for the nuclear power projects for all time to come . India does not have the facility for reprocessing nor commercially proven technology to set up reprocessing facilities at present. Obviously, Manmohan Singh thinks that if India can have this reprocessing facility, then it would pave way for setting up the nuclear power generating capacity in a big way in India
At present, Indian demand for natural uranium is 540 tonnes per annum and the present production of natural uranium in India is only 280 tonnes per annum. As a result of this, nuclear power projects are presently operating at low capacity utilisation level, which is a matter of concern.
To overcome the shortage of uranium, the Department of Atomic Energy is working on plans to set up new uranium processing plants in Banduhurang in Singhbhum district of Jharkand, Seripally in Nalgonda district and Tummalapalle in Cudappah district of Andhra Pradesh, Mawthabah in the West Khasi Hills district of Meghalaya and at Chatrapur in Ganjam district of Orissa.
The Government of India has very recently approved the proposal for setting up uranium mining and processing plant at Tummalapally in Cudappah district in Andhra Pradesh at the cost of Rs.11062.90 million. The setting up of this mine will meet the uranium fuel
requirement of the nuclear power programme. The mine is likely to be commissioned within thirty months and the processing plant in 36 months. The government of India also has a proposal to set up a facility at Paradeep in coastal Orissa to extract uranium from waste material generated by two fertilizer units in the vicinity.
Therefore, it can be seen that India is unlikely to run out of uranium for the next fifty years, even without the reprocessing facility to be acquired through the nuclear deal.
Thorium as alternate fuel
India has large reserves of thorium which is a source of alternate nuclear fuel for power generation. Thorium 232 generates uranium 233 which can be used as fuel for nuclear power.
India is on the verge of setting up the world’s first Advanced Heavy Water Reactor, which uses thorium as fuel. India has the design and technology to install a 300 MW thorium based reactor immediately. This would be a major technological achievement for India, as thorium based reactors would see the completion of India’s nuclear cycle. The Director of Indira Gandhi Atomic Research Centre, Kalpakkam said recently that the project would be taken up in the eleventh plan and would be completed within seven years.
With the use of Thorium as fuel, India’s dependence on uranium will become considerably less and India can comfortably do without the fuel reprocessing facility that Manmohan Singh seeks to bring to India through the nuclear deal.
Manmohan Singh cannot but have heard Dr. Abdul Kalam speaking on several occasions about the potentials for India using thorium as fuel.
It is particularly surprising that Manmohan Singh has not given any weightage to this strength of India with regard to thorium fuel. Is it that Manmohan singh lacks confidence in the capability of Indian technologists and atomic scientists ?
Renewable sources of energy
All over the world , it is very well accepted that renewable energy is the best source of power from the environmental and long term view point. India has excellent credentials in this regard.
Wind power is one of the most viable renewable energy sources for power generation in India. India has installed wind power capacity of 5340.6 MW and ranks fourth in the world after Germany, USA and Spain. As far as wind resource potential is concerned, the wind energy potential in India has been assessed at 45,000 MW, assuming 3 percent land availability for setting up wind farms.
Exploiting this wind power resource would enable India to do away with the nuclear deal, as wind energy can provide the power that Manmohan singh wants to generate through nuclear deal in the next decade.
India also has considerable hydro electric power potentials still untapped.
Very recently, new hydel power projects have been announced in Arunachal Pradesh to produce 25000 MW, that would be set up in the next eight years. This would be much more than what the nuclear power is presently providing to India. With the involvement of private sector in the hydro electric power projects of Arunachal Pradesh, things are moving fast now and generation of 2710 MW of power by end of eleventh plan is expected.
There are other exciting possibilities like generation of power from urban and industrial wastes. As on 31st March,2006, the cumulative installed capacity of power generation based on energy recovery from urban and industrial wastes is 45.78 MW. The estimated potential of energy recovery from municipal solid waste is expected to grow along with the growth of economy and may reach 5000 MW of installed capacity by 2017. Similarly, the estimated potential for recovery from industrial waste is around 1000 MW of power at present and it is expected to increase to about 2000 MW by 2017.
There are no technological constraints in stepping up power generation from wind energy and based on municipal and industrial wastes.
There are of course other possibilities like solar power, ocean wave etc. where India has enormous naturally bestowed strength.
What we need is pride and confidence
Recently, speaking at a function at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research at Kalpakkam, Dr. Georges Vendryes, Hon. Executive Vice President of the French Atomic commission said that India has the unique expertise in nuclear power field and pointed out India’s expertise to handle the kind of fuel used in fast breeder reactors, which produce more fissile material even as they use them.
When India and France parted ways after India’s nuclear test in 1974, India lost the supply of enriched uranium from France and other countries. But, Indian scientists overcame the constraints to a large extent by developing technology to use mixed uranium and plutonium carbide fuel. This speaks enormously about the capability and confidence levels of the Indian scientists.
Manmohan Singh should not reduce India and Indian scientists to the level of mere recipients of technology but provide them the opportunity to generate the technology themselves and supply to other countries in the world.
If the nuclear deal would be entered, this would be a great disservice to the Indian scientists and technologists and India would be driven backward.Then, we will be mere buyers and traders. |
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